DON'T EXPECT A PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR

DON'T EXPECT A PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR

Artículo de Danny Rubinstein en “Ha´aretz” del 12.05.2003

Con un muy breve comentario al final:

"SURVIVAL IS NOW A STEP-BY-STEP MATTER (HOAGLAND)

L. B.-B.

There isn't much chance Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) will try to use force to make Hamas and Islamic Jihad give up.

He has often declared the need to cease all violent intifada activity and to maintain a single Palestinian Authority under a single law. He has also spoken of the need to collect the illegal weapons held by the various factions.

But it's a long way from rhetoric to deeds. Abu Mazen's problem isn't Yasser Arafat breathing down his neck. He has a much graver problem - he doesn't have the political strength to fight Hamas.

After the struggle to name Mohammed Dahlan as minister in charge of security, much was said about how Dahlan can take action against Hamas, the way he did in 1996. Dahlan, then head of Preventive Security in Gaza, and Jibril Rajoub, his counterpart in the West Bank, proved themselves - as far as Israel was concerned. Starting in 1996, they chased down Hamas activists and drastically reduced the number of terror attacks. With their help, the Netanyahu and Barak terms (until September 2000) were the quietest, security-wise, since the start of the peace process.

But what happened then cannot repeat itself. In those years, from mid-1996 to the outbreak of the intifada, there were relatively few militant Islamic cells in the territories. The military wings of the opposition from the left (the Popular Fronts and the Democratic Fronts) were falling apart. And Fatah didn't even have a military wing. Dahlan and Rajoub didn't really have a lot of work. A few members of Hamas cells were killed in mysterious circumstances, a few hundred were arrested, and the activities of the Islamic fanatics were blocked.

Now it's a very different story. There are far more Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists, possibly even thousands, and they have broad public backing. According to Gaza public opinion polls, Hamas wins similar approval ratings to Fatah. The more activists are killed by the Israel Defense Forces, the more new cells pop up. If Abu Mazen and Dahlan want to suppress them, a limited campaign of arrests won't be enough - a war will be necessary.

Abu Mazen and his people don't want, and apparently cannot, do that. Gaza Fatah leader Dr. Zakariya al-Ara, declared on Saturday, "We have no choice but to renew the dialogue with all the Palestinian factions, because the alternative is civil war."

That's also clear to Hamas. Khaled Mashal, head of Hamas' political department, in exile in Qaar, announced last week that the Egyptian government is renewing the meetings of the Palestinian groups, which took place in Cairo four months ago and were meant to reach a cease-fire. The heads of all the Palestinian factions, therefore, are now expecting invitations from Egyptian Intelligence services chief General Omar Suleiman, whom Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak put in charge of Palestinian affairs for Egypt.

Although Hamas leaders often say they won't get involved in a civil war, some, like Mashal, have issued implied warnings that if Abu Mazen tries to disarm Hamas, he will also have to deal with the armed wing of Fatah, meaning the Al Aqsa Martyrs brigade.

Therefore, Israelis looking forward to an Abu Mazen war on Hamas will be disappointed. Instead, they should expect a series of meetings and dialogues between Abu Mazen and Hamas, and attempts to reach a compromise. If achieved, it will be far from the Israeli government's demands.

Muy breve comentario final:

"SURVIVAL IS NOW A STEP-BY-STEP MATTER (HOAGLAND)

L. B.-B.

¡Como nos suena todo esto en España! Durante años, nacionalistas violentos y no violentos vascos han venido diciendo, entre otras muchas monsergas, que había que evitar una guerra civil en Euskadi. Y utilizando esa argumentación para evitar una reacción democrática frente al fundamentalismo. Durante años y años toda la estrategia democrática ha consistido en dar muestras de buena voluntad a la bestia para intentar civilizarla, y todo ha sido inútil. Solamente ahora, desde que se ha optado por la firmeza, podemos ver acercarse el final del terrorismo.

Pues en Palestina lo mismo. Los fanáticos no retroceden hasta que no se les hace frente, pero al mismo tiempo hay que ofrecer salidas pacíficas para la población que se ve encerrada en el círculo de la violencia. Sin renunciar a su autodefensa, pero sí a objetivos inasumibles como los del "Gran Israel", los hebreos deben aceptar la "hoja de ruta", comenzar las medidas de desmantelamiento de los asentamientos y ayudar a los palestinos a ir desmantelando también, paso a paso, a las organizaciones terroristas. Y los palestinos deben comenzar esta tarea ya, sin dar más largas ni abrir teatrales procesos de negociación que no conducen a ningún lado. Hace falta firmeza, no teatro, ni debilidades, ni componendas. Los palestinos se juegan esta vez conseguir un Estado o no. Se juegan la alternativa del Estado palestino o el "Gran Israel": "survival is now a step-by-step matter". Rumbo firme hacia puerto, aunque sea dando bordadas.